It is interesting to look back at the solar model predictions for cycle 24 sunspots and the rewriting of history at each new update.
Just looking at some recent PR releases:
NASA May 20, 2003Hathaway predicts cycle 24 to begin Dec 2006
NASA March 10, 2006March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived.
"This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958."
"Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011."
"he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.""
NASA Dec 21, 2006
"Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one."
"Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco."
"According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history."
NOAA April 25, 2007
"The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts"
Oops, maybe let's try again. We don't know what's happening. Our models don't work. But our throwing darts now reveals that we don't have a clue:NOAA April 27, 2007
NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL START LATE
"Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker."
“The Space Environment Center’s space weather alerts, warnings, and forecasts are a critical component of NOAA’s seamless stewardship of the Earth’s total environment, from the Sun to the sea,” said retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator."
Now the scientific data analysis
"The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped
shift the panel away from its earlier leaning toward a strong Cycle 24."
Explaining they have no clue
“By giving a long-term outlook, we’re advancing a new field—space climate—that’s still in its infancy,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Issuing a cycle prediction of the onset this far in advance lies on the very edge of what we know about the Sun.”
"Another clue will be whether Cycle 24 sunspots appear by mid 2008. If not, the strong-cycle group might change their forecast."
Jan 2008
With the appearance of
Sunspot 981 -- a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot -- on Friday, January 4, experts at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (
NOAA) said that Cycle 24 is now here. "This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of the Space Weather Prediction Center (
SWPC), part of NOAA. "In this case, it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years."
"on Friday, January 4, experts at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (
NOAA) said that Cycle 24 is now here. "This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of the Space Weather Prediction Center (
SWPC), part of NOAA. "In this case, it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years."
"NASA's Hathaway, along with colleague Robert Wilson at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco last month, said that Solar Cycle 24 "looks like it's going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago."
A summary of other predictions was provided
Sept 2007 by janssens"Averaging all results, solar cycle 24 is expected to start late 2007 and reach a maximum monthly Wolfnumber of
106,9 +/- 21,8 late 2011"
NOAA May 2008
NOAA & NASA June 27, 2008
"The panel expects solar minimum to occur in March, 2008. The panel expects the solar cycle to reach a peak sunspot number of 140 in October, 2011
or a peak of 90 in August, 2012."
NASA July 11, 2008"The sun is behaving normally. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway."
"There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."
"some observers are questioning the length of the ongoing minimum, now slogging through its 3rd year." "It does seem like it's taking a long time," allows Hathaway, "but I think we're just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last."
No we were following your forecasts and those of the other "experts".Data as of Aug 15
Our Sun is still not producing any sunspots
Sunspot numbers for August 7-13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 0.
